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November 12, 2008: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) again revised Connecticut’s real personal income (RPI) between 2005Q1 to 2008Q3, resulting in a mixed message. BEA found Connecticut RPI was higher in 2007Q3 than previously thought. After raising that number, BEA then found RPI declined more precipitously, showing no subsequent quarterly growth or even constant numbers. When measured in nominal (current) dollars, personal income (PI) has continued to grow, but not enough to offset price increases.
The upturn in the old BEA income series from 2007Q4 to 2008Q2 generated mild increases in estimated state output in 2008; the revisions, seeing steady income declines from 2007Q3 to the present, produced the opposite conclusion. In sum, Connecticut’s economy has probably been contracting for the last four quarters, clearly qualifying as a statewide recession.
CCEA presents two scenarios, one business as usual, and the other that suggests improvements over the coming four quarters, based on an approximate $1.50/gallon reduction in fossil fuel costs.
Connecticut's unemployment rate, 6.1%, is below the national rate, 6.5%, with only modest job losses through this period. Despite the gathering economic storm clouds, the CCEA Economic Outlook forecasts total job loses of only 40,000, from 1,703 to 1,663 thousand for the end of the forecast period, 2010Q3. This will take state employment back to where it was in 2005. Read the Full Report.
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