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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Opinion

A Down Market May Not Always Be Bad

November 21, 2008 03:58 PM ET | Bonnie Erbe | Permanent Link | Print

How are you dealing with the down market? Everyone I know is worried about it, trying his best to ignore it, or lying in bed with the covers over his head. I've tried a bit of all three and would love to hearhow you are dealing with the nation's economic implosion.

Meanwhile, for the Pollyannas among us, there is some good news in a down market. Just remember that crude oil prices, at least according to some, have an inverse relationship with the stock market. When oil goes up, it filters into every consumer and transportable product, so consumer costs rise and the stock market drops on fears of inflation. When demand is down (as is the case now), oil drops. So for all of us waiting for the bear market to end, remember: When it does, crude prices will rise. So read this from Penn Energy, and weep, or smile, depending on your perspective:

HOUSTON—Crude prices fell for the fifth consecutive session Nov. 20, pulled down by a tumbling stock market, with the expiring December contract dropping below $50/bbl to its lowest closing in 3 years on the New York market.

However, analysts in the Houston office of Raymond James & Associates Inc. said the new front-month January contract climbed above $50/bbl in early trading Nov. 21 on news that crude supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will be down 3.8% in November as recent production cuts begin to show. 

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Tags: recession | stocks | stock market | oil

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Reader Comments

It's pretty clear that $145 oil was driven by speculation, not real "demand". Now the bull speculators are scared out, and if we have any sense, we'll keep them out.

Oil may bounce up and down 10 or 20 bucks.

"Bounce" by 50 or 100 again for no reason? Not unless we're weak and silly.

I'm confused. It states in the article that "oil prices, according to some, have an inverse relationship with the stock market" which we saw proof of earlier in the summer when oil was high. We especially saw the opposite relationship with the dollar and oil... Dollar goes down, oil goes up.

Explain to me, then, how when this bear market is over, oil's low price will also be over? If there is an inverse relationship, how can both oil price and the stock market increase at the same time?

A Down Market May Not Always Be Bad

.

oil below 60$ is terrible news , much worst than the shenanigans of some overpaid wall streets "managers"

it means that oil exploration is going to pretty much stop , old platforms be decomissionned instead of been kept in use ,

few new oil fields will be put on stream , setting up the world for a creeping oil shortage wich will scutter any chance of sustained upswig .

as soon as thing pick up the price will bounce and castrate any recovery

.

About Bonnie Erbe

Bonnie Erbe is a contributing editor at U.S. News & World Report and hosts PBS's weekly news analysis program, To the Contrary with Bonnie Erbe. She also writes a weekly syndicated newspaper column for Scripps Howard News Service.

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